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China's electric trucks hit 50.3% of heavy truck sales as the overall market shrinks 21%
September sales put battery trucks at half of China's heavy truck market, while the US and EU remain far behind and the price gap still shapes who buys.
A majority in a shrinking market
Electric models made up 50.3% of heavy trucks sold in China in September, a result that matters to fleet buyers, diesel suppliers and truck makers alike. [1] Electric heavy truck sales rose 37% year-on-year to 33,100 units, while the overall heavy truck market shrank by 21%. [1]
The share has swung before. It briefly hit 53.9% in December 2025 before falling back to around 23% by March, as buyers had rushed to beat expiring incentives. [1]
The year in numbers
In 2025, electric heavy truck sales nearly tripled to 231,100 units, up 182%, for a 28.9% share. [2] Through the first nine months of 2026, China sold 226,400 electric heavy trucks, up 64%, for a 38.1% share. [2]
Kpler tracked the monthly swing in registrations. LNG's share of heavy-duty registrations fell from 37% in March to 11% in July, while electric's share rose from 23% to 47%. [1]
What it does to diesel
Kpler expects Chinese diesel demand to fall by about 230,000 barrels per day in 2026, or around 10%. [1] LNG and electric trucks together are displacing around 680,000 barrels per day of diesel. [1]
Fleet size limits the effect for now, because electric trucks will only make up about 8% of China's heavy truck fleet by year end. [1]
The fuel price spike in spring 2026, tied to the Iran war, cut diesel demand on its own and pushed more fleets toward electric. [2] According to the article behind these figures, that explains only part of the shift. [2]
Price gap and running costs
An electric heavy truck in China can cost CN¥450,000 (US$64,000) more than a diesel equivalent. [1] Trade-in subsidies of up to CN¥140,000 (US$20,000) help close the gap, and some cities add their own. [1]
Running costs are lower for electric. CATL claims savings of about 0.6 yuan per km for electric trucks. [2] A study by the ICCT and China's CATARC found battery-electric trucks about 19% cheaper per tonne-km than diesel in good conditions. [2]
CATL's swap network and targets
CATL plans to run 900 heavy truck swap stations by the end of 2026 and 2,000 in 2027. [1] Its standardised battery packs can be exchanged in about five minutes. [1]
In August, CATL agreed to buy nearly a quarter of Qiyuan Green Power, the country's largest swap operator. [1]
In June, China's government set a target of 40% new-energy heavy truck sales by 2030, alongside 1.6 million such trucks on the road. [1] CATL expects new-energy vehicles to account for half of China's annual truck sales by 2028. [1]
Far behind in the US and Europe
Electric models hold less than 1% of US Class 8 sales and just 2.5% of EU heavy truck registrations. [1] Switzerland, Norway, the Netherlands and Sweden have all recently surpassed 10% electric share in Europe. [1]
In the US, an electric Class 8 tractor costs 2.4 times as much as a diesel model. [1] The ICCT puts the median electric Class 8 tractor at $411,200, against $172,500 for diesel. [2]
Federal tax credits for electrified commercial vehicles ended in 2025. [1] California has shelved its zero-emission fleet rule following Trump administration pressure. [1] Tesla received a recent order for 2,500 Semis through ZET SCALE in the US. [2]
What this means for you
If you buy or run heavy trucks in China, the price gap is the first number to check: an electric truck can cost CN¥450,000 more than a diesel one. [1] Trade-in subsidies of up to CN¥140,000 and any city top-ups reduce it. [1]
Then compare running costs. CATL claims savings of about 0.6 yuan per km, and the ICCT and CATARC study found electric trucks about 19% cheaper per tonne-km in good conditions. [2]
If you watch the diesel market, Kpler's forecast of a roughly 10% fall in Chinese demand in 2026 is a figure to follow. [1] The electric share has also reversed before, from 53.9% in December to around 23% by March. [1]
Sources
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